Ethereum Outperformance Pitched at 0.040 ETH-BTC as Hyperliquid Volume Rivals ETH

Ethereum News

Ethereum may be entering a phase of sustained outperformance versus Bitcoin, according to Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick. After Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 bitcoin during the final week of May — a token amount relative to its 843,706 $BTC stack — Kendrick framed the market reaction as a potential turning point, describing the move as the start of $ETH outperformance versus $BTC. He noted that bearish bitcoin sessions historically produce few comparable $ETH–$BTC upside moves: since the start of 2024, only 23 sessions delivered larger $ETH–$BTC topside moves on a bitcoin down day, underlining the significance of the rotation.

The forecast carries specific numerical anchors. Kendrick expects the $ETH–$BTC ratio to climb to 0.040 by year-end from roughly 0.028 currently, while longer-dated ether targets are held at $4,000 by the close of 2026 and $40,000 by the end of 2030. His thesis leans on improving internal metrics for the network — including its anchoring role in stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and DeFi activity — even as ether’s spot price has lagged. That view would persist even if Strategy aggressively repurchased multiples of the $BTC it offloaded last week, signaling conviction in the relative-value setup over short-term flow noise.

A structural distinction between bitcoin and ether treasury vehicles further underpins the bullish ether case. Because ether can be staked for a yield near 3%, Ethereum-focused digital asset treasuries have, in Kendrick’s framing, zero need to ever liquidate holdings to fund operations. Bitcoin treasuries lack that cash-flow lever, which he argues should allow ether-focused DATs to sustain higher multiples of net asset value than Strategy. Durable mNAV premiums make capital raises cheaper and the operating model more resilient — a feedback loop that could accelerate institutional capital migration from $BTC-only treasury vehicles toward staking-enabled ether structures in the coming quarters.

Yet not all institutional flow is gravitating to ether. Hyperliquid, the decentralized derivatives venue behind the $HYPE token, is drawing hedge fund and prop desk activity at a pace that occasionally eclipses Ethereum-related trading at major prime brokers. FalconX’s global head of markets, Joshua Lim, said $HYPE has become on some days more active than Ethereum across the firm’s pipes, citing deep liquidity and broad consensus that the asset is institutionally allocatable. The platform reportedly generated about $800 million in 2025 revenue, an indicator of how quickly crypto-native infrastructure is capturing share from incumbent venues — including spot and derivatives exchange rails serving the majors.

The rotation reflects a broader recalibration. With bitcoin and ether stuck in tight ranges amid macro uncertainty, ETF outflows, and competition from other speculative assets, options-implied volatility on both majors has compressed near multi-year lows, signaling subdued directional conviction. Lim expects the pattern to persist for several months, with flows migrating into a narrower group of altcoin exposures including Zcash, Venice, and a cluster of artificial-intelligence-themed tokens. Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO perpetual contracts referencing private companies such as SpaceX have added a further pull, offering liquid exposure that hedge funds previously could not access elsewhere.

The Hyperliquid surge also illustrates a thesis that crypto-native trading infrastructure can extend beyond digital assets themselves. Early listings, perpetual contracts on private equity exposures, and rapid product iteration have helped the venue convert speculative interest into recurring institutional usage. For Ethereum, that competitive pressure complicates the near-term flow picture even as longer-run fundamentals — restaking, layer-2 throughput, and the stablecoin settlement layer — continue to deepen. The split message for ether holders is unambiguous: structural demand drivers strengthen the macro thesis, but rival venues are siphoning the very rotation capital that would normally chase higher-beta majors during a relative-value trade.

Ether trades near $1,934.85, down roughly 1.8% on the day and pinned within a clearly defined downtrend. Immediate support sits at $1,927, with secondary cushions at $1,875 and $1,825 — a break below the first level would expose the lower band quickly. Resistance lines up at $1,942, $2,022, and $2,065. The 26.2 RSI print is deeply oversold, raising the probability of a reflexive bounce, but a bearish MACD posture keeps trend bias negative. Bulls need a reclaim of $1,942 and follow-through above $2,022; loss of $1,875 would invalidate the near-term recovery setup and confirm continuation lower.